多储罐连续爆炸是化工园区中极为重要且危险的事故，一旦发生必须立即疏散人员。因此，综合考虑园区所有储罐爆炸演化过程的各种可能性，提出最优疏散路径确定方法。首先，考量储罐爆炸冲击波在储罐之间的相互影响，形成储罐爆炸损伤演化过程；其次，确定最不利演化过程及其对应的区域损伤概率分布；最后，按照区域损伤概率分布变化梯度最大的方向，使用所提方法在区域损伤概率分布中确定最优疏散路径。通过包含4个储罐的化工园区实例，在最不利状态下的区域损伤概率分布图中设置4个疏散起点，得到各自的最优疏散路径，包括直线、折线和斜线等。研究表明：不同演化过程在相同位置的最优疏散路径不同；相同演化过程在不同位置的最优疏散路径不同；最优疏散路径的正确概率与该储罐爆炸演化过程出现的概率一致。

Continuous explosions of multiple storage tanks in a chemical industrial park are extremely important and dangerous accidents. Once they occur, personnel must be evacuated immediately. Therefore, considering all possible evolution processes of storage tank explosions in the entire park, a method for determining the optimal evacuation route is proposed. Firstly, the mutual influence of shock waves from storage tank explosions on each other is considered to form the evolution process of storage tank explosion damage. Secondly, the most unfavorable evolution process and its corresponding regional damage probability distribution are determined. Finally, the optimal evacuation route is determined in the regional damage probability distribution according to the direction with the largest gradient of probability distribution change. Through an example of a chemical industrial park with four storage tanks, four evacuation starting points are set in the regional damage probability distribution map under the most unfavorable state, and the optimal evacuation routes for each are obtained, including straight lines, broken lines, and oblique lines, etc. The research shows that the optimal evacuation routes at the same position are different for different evolution processes; the optimal evacuation routes at different positions are different for the same evolution process; and the correct probability of the optimal evacuation route is consistent with the probability of the occurrence of the storage tank explosion evolution process.